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Press Article: April 10, 2004
Planning For When A
Giant Earthquake
Strikes On The New Madrid
The upper Mississippi Delta rests
atop the New Madrid Fault. Most residents of the five states
surrounding the area know that earthquakes ravaged this area
193 years ago, and some remember when a repeat was predicted
14 years ago - but nothing happened. Is there any reason to revisit
an old topic? Yes, because things can be done now to make a world
of difference in the future. It is called mitigation.
Sam Penny, a traveling author
and lecturer, recently published his novel Memphis 7.9, a science-based
story of what happens when a 7.9 magnitude earthquake strikes
within a few miles of a major metropolitan area in the central
United States. This is the first of the four book series about
The 7.9 Scenario, telling as accurately as possible what will
happen when a giant earthquake strikes and offering observations
on what can be done now to soften the blow.
Earthquakes do little to change
the earth's landscape. The hills and plains have felt earthquakes
since their beginnings and are largely in a state of relaxation
towards the shaking. Earthquakes do their greatest damage to
man-made structures, for man builds structure to defy gravity
and press against the environment. The constructs of our society
will break, and the more violently the earth shakes, the greater
will be the destruction of what man has built. Our society must
plan that a great earthquake will happen - someday, someday soon.
Planning falls into two areas:
contingency planning and mitigation planning. Contingency planning
is deciding what to do when something happens. The state and
many cities have Emergency Management Agencies that is devoted
to this task. Fire, Police, and Sheriffs Departments are heavily
involved with this activity. Local citizens can become aware
and volunteer to be part of the emergency action teams.
Mitigation planning is doing
something now to "soften the blow" of a disaster in
the future. It involves things like retrofitting bridges so that
the shaking of an earthquake is less likely to make them fall.
It means using higher standards when constructing new buildings
to make them less vulnerable to an earthquake. Mitigation has
much to do with the perceived probability of something going
wrong and the "risk" if it does.
Government agencies, the insurance
companies, and the construction industry calculate risk based
upon the "probability" of a disastrous event occurring
and the "cost of repairing" what was broken. Their
logic is that the lower the probability, the lower the risk.
The lower the risk, the less mitigation required.
There is a problem when this
logic is applied to mitigation for a giant earthquake. There
are some things in society where the "cost of repair"
is simply too high, and it becomes necessary to lessen the consideration
of the probability (unless it goes to zero).
Consider the extreme example,
a game of Russian Roulette. Empty all chambers of a revolver
then return a live shell to one of the chambers. Spin the revolving
chamber and without looking, put the pistol to your head and
pull the trigger. If the spin positioned the shell under the
hammer, you just blew your brains out.
Suppose you do not wish to play
Russian Roulette with the six-shooter you hold in your hand.
If someone offers you a twelve-shot revolver instead so you can
reduce the odds by half, should you reconsider your decision?
Of course not. Changing the odds does nothing for you, the cost
of repair is still infinite.
There are some who contend that
since a few seismologists are now suggesting that the mean time
between major earthquakes on the New Madrid may be 400 years
rather than 250 years, the construction industry should be allowed
to relax its design standards and build structures like schools
and apartments and businesses that are less able to withstand
the shaking of an earthquake. These arguments sound suspiciously
like the game of Russian Roulette.
The New Madrid Fault has been
here for 200 million years; it is not about to go away. This
is a fine area in which to live, set your roots, and raise a
family. There are things you as an individual can do about what
might happen.
Contingency planning is vital
- it may save your life when the inevitable happens and a great
earthquake does strike. Learn what your Emergency Management
people have in place, and protect you own home from failure.
Get involved in volunteer emergency efforts.
Mitigation planning is vital
- it may soften the blow when something does happen. Understand
what are the important building standards and support higher
standards, especially for vital structures like the schools and
public buildings. Do not stand in danger's path, such as putting
your home in the bottom of the flood plain. Do not depend on
all systems working well all the time. Levees, power, water,
sewer, and gas may fail. In a giant earthquake they will be unavailable
for an extended length of time. Plan for how you can soften the
effect of their absence. |
