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Press Article: April 9, 2004
Sam Penny's Reality
Fiction Series
Describes New Madrid Earthquake Dangers
Author and lecturer Sam Penny
recently published the first of The 7.9 Scenario series, his
novel Memphis 7.9. This book offers in story form a blunt perspective
based on scientific analysis what happens when a giant 7.9 magnitude
earthquake strikes within a few miles of a major metropolitan
area in the Central United States.
"Like any good engineer
should, I spent six years collecting and analyzing data about
earthquakes before publishing," Penny said. "Though
I worked in California, home of the San Andreas Fault, I found
that seismologists considered a giant earthquake on the New Madrid
Fault to be just as likely as one on the West Coast. Furthermore,
the nature of the geology and demographics in the Central United
States meant earthquakes there would be ten times more devastating
than one of the same size in California. Therefore, I focused
my studies on the New Madrid Fault."
Penny retired in 1998 from a
career as an engineering physicist, computer scientist, entrepreneur,
and corporate executive. "My keen interest in geology evolved
while designing computing systems for the oil drilling industry.
During that time I co-authored several trade and scientific articles
with geologists on directional drilling and rock mechanics."
In 1989 he felt the shaking from
the magnitude 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake. "When I saw the
fallen Cypress Freeway in Oakland, California, a mile from the
original offices of the company I helped found in 1970, my interest
in geology refocused on seismology and the effects of giant earthquakes."
Reports from the United States
Geological Service and the Federal Emergency Management Agency
provided the raw material for the analysis of what happens to
people and man-made structures when a giant earthquake happens.
Penny explains, "Larger events are possible but much less
likely to happen, even to the point where some say they will
never happen. Earthquakes in the magnitude 6.0 to 6.5 range are
much more likely, as much as two chances in three on the New
Madrid in the next fifty years, but their effects will be localized.
I chose to study a 7.9 event because it will cause catastrophic
harm to the region and to our country, and has up to a ten percent
chance of happening within the next fifty years. It is the 'unhappy'
medium."
The analysis began in Memphis.
That city, resting on the flood plains and bluffs overlooking
the Mississippi River in Shelby County, Tennessee, is home to
over a million residents. Only forty-five miles from the southern
half of the New Madrid Fault, it is the closest large urban area
to the fault zone.
The southern extension of the
350-mile long New Madrid Seismic Zone hides beneath a half-mile-thick
layer of mud and sand, sediments that fill the Mississippi valley
from Illinois to Louisiana. Apart from white circles of sand
outlining old sand boils, you can find little evidence of the
great earthquakes that rocked that region in 1811 and 1812. Five
of those temblors measured over 8.0 magnitude. The aftershocks
continued for five years. That episode remains the largest seismic
event to strike the United States in recorded history.
"I applied USGS and FEMA
numbers to Shelby County and concluded they could be looking
at over 8,000 people killed, over 40,000 people injured, and
nearly half a million people left homeless. I next applied the
same analysis to the entire eastern half of the United States,
from the Rockies to the Atlantic and summed it all together.
The results were staggering: over eighty thousand people killed,
half a million injured, over six million left homeless. When
I looked at what could happen to industry, energy, and transportation,
it became obvious that such an event could push the United States
into the worst depression it had ever seen."
Penny continues, "A magnitude
7.9 earthquake on the New Madrid Seismic Zone could overnight
destroy 10% of our country's Gross Domestic Product. The personal
tragedy of deaths, injuries, and homeless would pale compared
to the widespread after-effects on our economy and way of life.
Such a happening would be a truly catastrophic disaster, and
the USGS says the probability of this happening is 7 to 10% in
the next fifty years. The probability of blowing your brains
out by playing Russian Roulette with a twelve shot revolver is
8%. These risks are equivalent."
"The results of my analysis
presented me with a dilemma. When I looked into how our country
is preparing for such an eventuality, I found there is largely
ignorance and apathy amongst the citizens and a focus on short-term
problems by our governments. Looking into the future I could
see the demise of my concept of The United States of America
with odds for it happening in the lifetime of my grandchildren
that I personally would not bet on. I knew there were actions
that could be taken by both the public and the government, things
that can be done now. More light must shine on this problem."
"Having written and read
scientific treatises in the past, including several very good
ones on this very problem, I concluded I should not spread my
message along the same path. I decided to do something new. I
would tell of what will happen as accurately as I could in the
form of a story, showing what happens through the eyes of someone
who is there, a genre I like to call Reality Fiction. I would
write a novel that would interest and educate the public in the
problem. I would provide a resource for the citizenry, elected
officials and bureaucracy to learn how to protect themselves,
the infrastructure, and the country from a truly catastrophic
disaster such as a great earthquake on the New Madrid Seismic
Zone. Thus began my writing project."
"I had to relearn writing,
for writing fiction is a very different task than writing science,"
Penny explains. Memphis 7.9, Book 1 of The 7.9 Scenario, published
August, 2003, is the first result of that effort. "I am
happy to say I succeeded in learning to write fiction. My book
received Honorable Mention for Best Science Fiction novel at
MidSouthCon 22 at Memphis in March, 2004."
The story is so big that The
7.9 Scenario had to be broken into four parts. Book 2, called
Broken River, will be published in June, 2004, and tells what
happens to the Mississippi and Ohio River system in a great earthquake.
The Holy Grail (2005) focuses on recovery efforts in Memphis
and Exodus (2006) describes the efforts of millions of refugees
trying to leave the stricken areas. |
